RECENT ECONOMIC REPORTS

INDONESIA: INDONESIA: TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING SYSTEM WORKSHOP

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The GOI hosted April 27-28 an "International Workshop on the Establishment of an Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS)". Over 100 representatives from governments, NGO's, universities and the private sector of Indonesia, China, Japan, German Norway and Iceland, the U.S., Malaysia, Thailand and others participated. According to the GOI, the event's purpose was to mobilize multilateral and bilateral support (i.e., financial and technical) for establishing its TEWS.

GOI Presentations

President Yudhuyono's point man for the national TEWS, State Minister of Research and Technology (MENRISTEK) Dr. Kusmayanto Kadiman, opened the event by alluding to the recent series of EWS events in Brussels; Paris; Port Louis, Mauritius; Kobe, Japan; Beijing; Phuket, Thailand; and Jakarta. He said the workshop's focus would be on Indonesia's national EWS as outlined in the "Grand Scenario of Indonesia's TEWS." This document is a refinement of the GOI's proposal for a national EWS - See paragraph 7)

Kadiman thanked China and Germany for their promised assistance (see below) and revealed that Japan and Korea would soon join them in this effort, which was "not exclusive". He also mentioned the contributions of Australia, Austria and UNESCO to a regional and global EWS network. In closing, Kadiman pointed out that the Meteorological and Geophysical Agency (BMG) is the lead GOI agency in the EWS effort and that any alerts would first originate with it.

In his brief remarks, Dr. Wendy Aritenang, MENRISTEK'S Deputy Minister the Utilization and Dissemination of Technology, said the workshop's main goal was to finalize the GOI's EWS concept among relevant GOI agencies. He said the "Grand Scenario" Kadiman mentioned explores in greater detail the existing capabilities and the roles of different equipment such as tide gauges, buoys, seismographs and telecommunications systems. It also highlights the importance of inter-agency collaboration in establishing a national TEWS. Dr. Aritenang admitted that costs would be an issue for any Indonesian EWS.

Dr. Ibrahim from the BMG explained the functions and challenging coordinating role of his agency, which is an operational entity located in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources. Ibrahim noted that the GOI had begun EWS deliberations at the Krakatau Eruption and Tsunami Commemoration Meeting August 26-29, 2003. That event's results dovetailed with the IOC's masterplan outlining the need for an integrated regional and global TEWS. Ibrahim called for a swift implementation of Indonesia's TEWS and its "socialization" among the general population to ensure effective disaster preparedness.

LIPI's Deputy Chairman of Earth Sciences, Dr. Jan Sopaheluwakan, the chief coordinator of the National Research Center for Disaster Mitigation (NRCDM), described the regional context of an Indonesian TEWS. He noted the multi-agency effort to organize this event was proof that the NRCDM was working, although it was not an operational entity. Dr. Sopaheluwakan also noted that any regional system should entail 3 components: a) Warning; b) Mitigation; and c) Hazard. Like many participants later, he emphasized that the goal should be an EWS that could provide 1-2 minutes lead time. Finally, with surprising candor, Sopheluwakan pointed out that Indonesia needs strong political will to speedily establish a TEWS. (Note: The GOI hopes the initial stage will be in operation by the end of this year).

Major Themes

Many of the themes that dominated the WMO EWS workshop in March 2005 and other recent EWS meetings also emerged during the workshop. However, participants focused more on the modalities and needs of an Indonesian TEWS. All parties reiterated their commitment to ensuring that Indonesia's national system is interoperable and compatible with an IOC-coordinated global system. However, participants acknowledged that details about how to ensure this interoperability would have to be worked out later.

There was a consensus on a number of themes during the workshop:

• Interoperability of national regional and global systems is a must for a comprehensive, open architecture EWS network. Systems should be multi-purpose to obtain buy-in from budget conscious policymakers. Downstream information should reach the right person/entity in the shortest time.
  
• Operational and maintenance costs may be decisive in determining which system the GOI ultimately adopts. Participants estimated maintenance costs at 10 percent of system costs and noted they could be very high. The GOI is still trying to estimate system cost details as noted earlier.
  
• Preparedness and Community Awareness is an integral part of any EWS. Senior officials at the national and local level, and the public need to be educated. The TEWS devices should be used for effective dissemination of information to an informed public. The GOI said UNESCO had agreed to help with disaster prepared at the local level.
  
• Local contingency plans are a vital part of an EWS. Comprehensive scenarios that include property loss are needed. Capacity building is also important. GOI officials admitted Indonesia needs new Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) for natural disaster management.
  
• Improved inter-agency and inter-government coordination in implementing EWSs. In the era of decentralization, coordination is more complex, but vitally important. Regional and local crisis centers need to be empowered to make decisions given their familiarity of the affected areas.
  
• False Alarms: Finding the balance between false alarms due to hasty alerts and delayed warning dissemination with possible disastrous consequences is important. Japan related its experience on this point, noting it is a fine balance that each nation and community had to find for itself.

Key Players

The Director of Germany's Head Division on Earth Systems confirmed his country's commitment to fund 10 tidal gauges, 25 seismometers, 10 GPS systems, and a buoy-equipped research vessel. He said the vessel should be in Indonesian waters by October 9, 2005 (where it would release 3 buoys) and the complete, open system (i.e., interoperable) would be installed within three years.

Japanese officials described their country's vast experience in dealing with earthquakes and tsunamis. They repeatedly stressed the importance of each nation creating its own EWS system, which would then link up with regional and international networks.

Chinese participants described their experience in earthquake and natural disaster management and offered training and equipment. These include: a) Ten broadband seismographs and their installation; b) Two backup stations; c) A data processing center with software; d) Satellite transmission equipment; and e) A 3-year training and maintenance program.

The GOI noted it is eager to work with U.S. agencies such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to create an effective EWS, and have already been in contact with peers in the U.S.

GOI List of Needs

During the workshop and in several papers, the GOI explained its needs. The GOI wants to increase five existing seismic centers in North Sumatra, Jakarta/West Java, Bali, South Sulawesi and Jayapura/North Papua to ten, and acquire broadband capability to better detect surface waves (a more accurate measurement of oceanic earthquakes and possible tsunamis). It also wants to accelerate automatic data processing and transmission. The goal is reduce detection time of source earthquakes from the current 10 minutes (with a manual system) to about 3-5 minutes with an updated automated system. Additional "strong motion accelerographs" would allow more accurate measurement of seismic activity. The GOI distributed a 12-page "Budgetary Summary" listing items that need funding, but were unable to provide specific cost information for each item.

Seawatch

The BPPT and Norway collaborated from 1996-1999 on the "Seawatch" program, which used buoys and remote sensors to collect various data for better weather forecasting. This included monitoring El Nino-induced global climate changes, monitoring sea water levels, and contributing to a TEWS. The GOI referenced the system in its "Grand Design" and several GOI officials mentioned it during the 2-day event. These officials believe that Seawatch could be incorporated into a regional EWS provided its network of buoys is upgraded with a seismic detection capability.

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